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05/25 - 06/01
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- PowerYourTrade Midday Trading Calls
- Reliance Money debuts in Hong Kong
- Free food movement will help curb inflation: FM's ...
- 'Rupee too high but RBI will prop it up'
- Slowdown hits electrical industry growth in FY08
- After multiplexes, retail giants face IPL heat
- Finance ministry may reduce Customs duty
- Asia stocks, bond yields jump on solid US data
- RCom likely to start due diligence of MTN in next ...
- Small scale items to be included in WPI
- PowerYourTrade Trading Calls
- PowerYourTrade Trading Calls
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Friday, May 30, 2008
PowerYourTrade Midday Trading Calls
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Reliance Money debuts in Hong Kong
Reliance Money debuts in Hong Kong
Hong Kong: Reliance Money, a retail broker based in India, ventured
into Hong Kong on Tuesday, kicking off an alliance with a local
brokerage house to give investors access to two fast growing markets
in Asia.
Reliance, a subsidiary of Anil Ambani's Reliance Capital Ltd, formed a
partnership with Goldride Securities, which is headed by the former
Hong Kong Stockbrokers Association chairman Anthony Espina, to provide
services and technology for investors in China, Hong Kong and India.
"Why India and China? Because they are the two largest populations in
the world and they are the two fastest growing economies in the
world," said Goldride's Espina.
China's domestic stock markets are off-limits to most overseas
investors, who instead usually buy shares of Chinese companies listed
in Hong Kong.
Through the tie-up, Reliance would give customers either in India or
Hong Kong access to its stock trading platform, portfolio management
services and its investment tools.
Goldride would provide access to potential retail and institutional
clients interested in investing directly in India.
The minimum for investment is $50,000 and the fees would be dependent
on meeting agreed upon investment targets.
Though stocks in both India and Hong Kong have fallen in 2008, they
have risen sharply in the last three years. From 2005 to 2007, India's
BSE index surged 206 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbed
94 percent. Earlier this month, Reliance launched India's first sharia-
compliant portfolio management scheme in partnership with Islamic
investment service Parsoli Corporation Ltd.
Sudip Bandyopadhyay, director and chief executive of Reliance Money,
said the scheme is seeing "significant" demand and has attracted $25
million in the last few weeks.
Free food movement will help curb inflation: FM's adviser
Free food movement will help curb inflation: FM's adviser
28 May, 2008.
NEW DELHI: As inflation tests new highs, the Finance Minister's
adviser today suggested easing restrictions on movement of food items
within the country, while calling any hike in interest rates to cool
price rise a bad idea.
"Inflation rate is higher than what we want it to be... and raising
interest rate is not the best way to curb inflation," Finance
Minister's adviser Subhashish Gangopadhyay said at a panel discussion
held by chamber PHDCCI here.
He said the food inflation was on account of domestic reasons, arising
from restrictions on movement of goods.
"We have too many constraints on food movement," he said, adding that
global factors were only driving up prices of fuel and primary
articles.
Inflation for the week ended May 10 stood at a 44-month high of 7.82
per cent, as prices of industrial fuel such as naphtha and jet fuel
went up. The only relief was that wheat procurement has touched a
record 20.7 MT so far this year.
Gangopadhyay was emphatic that any anti-inflationary measure that
hurts investment was not a good thing and in this context, felt that
raising interest rates would have serious implications for the
economy, "especially when we are aiming for high growth."
Reserve Bank has, this year, twice raised the percentage of cash that
banks must keep in reserve to suck out excess liquidity from the
banking system - a move aimed at tempering demand for loans and in
turn to cool consumption.
Although government has unleashed several measures such as banning
export of non-basmati rice, slashing import duty on edible oils and
goading steel and cement makers to hold prices to help contain
inflation, many expect the Reserve Bank to take additional monetary
measures to complement the government's efforts
'Rupee too high but RBI will prop it up'
'Rupee too high but RBI will prop it up'
28 May, 2008.
MUMBAI: The rupee is overvalued and should fall by 10 percent to about
48 per dollar but the central bank will support it to help state-run
oil importers, a member of India's convertibility panel said on
Wednesday. A.V. Rajwade, member of a 2006 central bank-appointed panel
on capital account convertibility, said there was little historical
evidence that a stronger rupee was effective in curbing inflation and
many exporters were not strong enough to shield themselves from sharp
currency gains.
The rupee rose more than 12 percent against the dollar in 2007 and
touched its highest level in nearly 10 years at 39.16 per dollar
<INR=IN> in November. But it has fallen nearly 9 percent so far in
2008 because of portfolio outflows and higher oil import costs, and
hit a 13-month low of 43.21 last week. It stood at 42.85 on
Wednesday.
"The rupee had become absurdly overvalued in my view, probably around
15 to 18 percent, but the central bank will intervene by selling
dollars to arrest the rupee's fall to help oil companies," Rajwade
told Reuters in an interview. "They will have to keep intervening if
they want to keep the rupee around 43 level or it will keep slipping,"
he said.
State-run oil retailers are losing millions of dollars a day selling
fuel at discounted rates set by the government. The falling rupee has
also increased import costs and with oil prices rising, India's trade
and current account deficits are widening. Economists estimate the
trade deficit was $90 billion in 2007/08. "You cannot have the rupee
going up when the trade deficit is at $100 billion," Rajwade said.
Traders say the central bank intervened last week to slow the rupee's
fall, but analysts have been surprised that it did not step in sooner
while inflation is running at 3-½ year high. Other central banks in
South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines and Indonesia have been propping up
their currencies to temper the inflationary impact of rising oil
prices
But Rajwade said China's yuan and Brazil's real had risen in the past
few years and Brazil's inflation was still 5 percent. "The yuan has
appreciated about 15-18 percent and the inflation rate is very similar
to India's, so currency appreciation does not necessarily lead to
lower inflation," he said. The Reserve Bank of India bought $20.3
billion in the first quarter of 2008 to keep the rupee down and has
been a net buyer of dollars in the currency market for more than two
years.
Rajwade said dollar selling by the central bank may drain rupee
liquidity from the money markets at a time when cash is already tight,
eventually pushing bond yields higher. The government gives bonds to
oil retailers to compensate them for their losses, but Rajwade said
this was inflationary in the long term as it did little to check
demand-side pressures. Furthermore, monetary steps would do little to
check high commodity prices as this was a supply-driven problem, he
said.
"None of these are very susceptible to monetary policy as you do not
eat less because interest rates go up." Giving incentives to farmers
to produce more would help bridge the supply-demand gap rather than
using price controls and subsidies, he said.
Slowdown hits electrical industry growth in FY08
Slowdown hits electrical industry growth in FY08
The Indian electrical and electronics equipment industry, suppliers to
the power sector, registered a moderate growth of 15 per cent in
2007-08 at Rs 38, 920 crore compared with the average 15.5 per cent
consistent growth recorded in the past five years.
According to the Indian Electrical and Equipment Manuafacturers
Association (IEEMA), the apex association of electrical and
electronics equipment industry, the drop in growth was mainly due to
an apparent slowdown experienced by the industry during the second
half of the financial year, particularly the last quarter of the year,
where the growth was only about 12.5 per cent. Whether the downfall
continues or is arrested will only be clear after the results of the
first quarter are known.
IEEMA, which compiles information on a regular basis, said the growth
is in actual quantitative or volume terms and is based on the compiled
and monitored production and sales data.
The strongest growth in the sector for the year was shown by the cable
industry, which grew by 28.3 per cent to Rs 11,000 crore a year, and
the PVC power cable sector, which grew by 21.2 per cent to Rs 7,500
crore.
The transmission line industry has reported an above-average growth of
18.2 per cent (Rs 6,000 crore).
"Power Grid Corporation, which is the major driver for the
transmission sector, has really got into action from the third quarter
by finalising new orders and this was the reason for growth in this
sector," said IEEMA sources.
The transformer industry registered an average growth of 15 per cent
to Rs 8,100 crore, with power and distribution transformers reporting
18.2 per cent and 12.8 per cent growth respectively.
Evacuation and transmission of power generated mainly at 220 kv and
132 kv levels were the key reason for this growth. However, growth has
decelerated in the last quarter by about 2.3 per cent. This is a
relatively new trend since the production levels are generally higher
during the last quarter, said IEEMA.
The switchgear and control gear sector (Rs 6,475 crore) posted a below-
average growth of 12.3 per cent. This was mainly powered by the HT
Switchgear demand at 220 kv level. Imports of MV Breakers have
increased substantially and with low cost and quicker deliveries, they
are now competing successfully with the domestic industry, observed
the organisation.
IEEMA predicted the future could be uncertain because of factors such
as an unprecedented rise in prices of crude oil, price hike of all raw
materials especially steel, copper and aluminium, inflation and
shortage of skilled manpower.
After multiplexes, retail giants face IPL heat
BANGALORE: The ongoing IPL Twenty20 cricket tournament has taken the
nation by storm and retailers complain that they are among its
unintended casualties, just like the movie halls which have been
drained of cine-goers.
Matches are played and screened at prime time, overlapping with the
hours when retailers conduct nearly half of their business, between 6
pm and 9 pm.
"The drop in walk-in customers is 20-30% since the IPL season
started," says Chakor Jain, business head for Lee at Arvind Brands.
Businessmen estimate a conversion rate (from walk-in to sales) of 40%
daily. This amounts to a fall in sales of 5-15%.
No one has been spared by the IPL phenomenon — the decline can be seen
across all stores, mass or premium. Big Bazaar, the Future Group's
department store chain, too, has recorded lower business volumes
during the last two months.
"IPL has become a game of bats and eyeballs, turning a nation of
cricket lovers into couch potatoes," observes brand consultant Harish
Bijoor. IPL is different in that it has also managed to interest women
while traditionally men are seen as cricket lovers, he says.
This has led to entire families being glued to their television
screens with a decline in shopping as an outdoor activity. But
retailers say they will adapt to the IPL reality from next year.
"The IPL, like Diwali or the March exams, is just another factor that
we will have to keep in mind when we plan our budget for a month or
season. For IPL, we will just have to keep it at 4-5% lower," says
Sanjeev Mohanty of United Colours of Benetton. "It is a temporary
phenomenon and its impact has been negative because of its novelty."
Furthermore, most feel that IPL is not necessarily an impediment to
business in the retail sector; it could have a positive impact if
plans are made and the opportunity exploited.
"Reebok has probably done better during this season because of its
association with the game. IPL can be used to leverage on merchandise,
and that is what we are looking at for the next season," Mr Mohanty
says. Some preparation is all that retailers need to make the most of
the IPL season," agrees Mr Bijoor.
"Malls and high-end shops could get cricket-friendly, with bigger
screens, schemes, tieups with brands and so on," he says. Retailers
have apparently decided to live by the axiom 'If you can't beat 'em,
join 'em'.
Source: Economic Times
Finance ministry may reduce Customs duty
NEW DELHI: The finance ministry is in no mood to cut duties even as it
rules out the possibility of a cess. Although the oil deficit —
projected at Rs 2,30,000 crore for 2008-09 — is threatening to derail
the fiscal balance, the finance ministry is reluctant to slash duties
given the huge spending ahead, be it the farm loan waiver or the NREG
extension or the Sixth Pay Commission recommendations.
Finance ministry sources say that at best, there is scope for
reduction in Customs duty in the wake of rupee depreciation. The
Customs duty for crude is 5%. A reduction in the duty could give
relief to the refining companies. The oil ministry's proposal of
imposing a cess, experts point out, will not be able to provide a
cushion as the collection could be just Rs 5,000 crore.
The finance ministry's reluctance to reduce duties stems from the fact
that the oil sector is among the biggest contributors to revenues. In
2007-08, of the total excise duty collection of Rs 1,17,266 crore
(revised estimates), close to 49% (Rs 57,460 crore) came from
petroleum products.
In the case of Customs, oil contributed 15% (Rs 12,270 crore) to the
total collection of Rs 81,800 crore. Thus, tinkering with the duty
structure has major implications for the finance ministry in the
backdrop of expenses that it has to incur in the fiscal: Rs 25,000
crore towards the farm debt waiver, Rs 26,000 crore (including
arrears) for Sixth Pay Commission implementation (for which no
budgetary provision was made) and Rs 16,000 crore, which could go up
during the year, for NREG.
Moreover, the revenue buoyancy itself in both direct and indirect
taxes could come under pressure with a slide in industrial production
and slowdown in developed economies, they said.
The government had abolished the ad valorem part of the excise duty on
unbranded petrol and unbranded diesel and replaced it with an
equivalent specific duty of Rs 1.35 per litre. At present, the excise
duty is Rs 14.35 per litre on unbranded petrol and Rs 4.60 per litre
on unbranded diesel. Even a small tinkering would hit the excise
revenues from the commodity and impact the fiscal arithmetic.
Political leaders will now take a call on how to sail through the
catch-22 situation which would not go down well with voters, with some
big states going to polls, and trigger inflation that has crossed
8%.
Asia stocks, bond yields jump on solid US data
HONG KONG: Asian stocks jumped on Thursday, with Japanese shares set
for the biggest daily gain in a month, on the back of a monthly gauge
of US business spending that was the highest this year, boosting safe-
haven government bond yields.
Exporters and technology companies provided the biggest lift to
Japan's Nikkei share average, which rose 2.9 percent, despite oil
prices that remain above $130 a barrel. And inflation fears still lurk
just below the surface.
The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to the
highest since August. On Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield rose above 4 percent, the highest since early January,
as investors demanded more of an incentive with high energy costs
feeding price pressures. The strength in equity markets and weakness
in bonds were essentially a reversal of Wednesday's pullback in
investors' willingness to take risks.
"Yesterday's selling in stock futures and buying in bond futures was
rather too extreme. Those moves seem to have calmed down today," said
Takahiko Murai, general manager of equities at Nozomi Securities. By
0130 GMT, South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.7 percent, set for its biggest
single-day rise in two weeks. Consumer goods heavyweight Samsung
Electronics led the index higher after Nomura upgraded its rating on
the company to "buy."
Taiwan's tech-heavy TAIEX index rose 1.4 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang
Seng was up 1.1 percent. An MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside
Japan gained 1.3 percent to its highest level since Monday. Some
analysts cautioned that the optimism evident in markets may not last.
"Trading volume is relatively light as investors are still unsure
about oil price trends, and as more US economic data is due later this
week," said Lee Sun-yeob, market analyst at Goodmorning Shinhan
Securities. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield
jumped 6 basis points to 1.795 percent, the highest in nearly 10
months.
The July contract for U.S. light crude oil was off 80 cents at $130.22
a barrel However, oil's 34 percent climb so far this year has raised
fears about tighter consumer spending and business investment in the
world's largest economy, particularly with the U.S. dollar showing no
signs of consistent strength. The U.S. currency held steady against
the yen at around 104.84 and was flat against the euro at 1.5650.
RCom likely to start due diligence of MTN in next two days
Having entered into exclusive negotiations for merging its business
with MTN, Reliance Communications is likely to start due diligence of
South African telecom giant in next two days.
According to sources close to the development, Anil Ambani's team is
likely to get hold of MTN books in next 48 hrs as a part of due
diligence process.
Any decision on the structure of the new entity in the post-merger
scenario will be taken only after completion of the due diligence.
Asked by when the process would be completed, sources said there is
exclusivity of 45 days by when the two companies have to decide on the
potential merger.
On 26th May, RCom announced entering into exclusive negotiations with
MTN to discuss potential combination of their businesses.
RCom Chairman Anil Ambani had said talks were aimed at achieving "a
partnership, which would provide investors, customers and the people
of both companies a unique and global platform for exponential growth,
creating substantial long-term shareholder value".
On 24th May, Bharti Airtel ended its 21-day negotiations with MTN on
the ground that the South African company proposed to make the Indian
company a subsidiary.
Small scale items to be included in WPI
A group of experts responsible for revamping the wholesale price index
has decided to include items manufactured by the small scale sector
for the first time to make the index more representative and
accurate.
The group, headed by Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen, has
selected 309 items from this sector in the new index, which is
expected to come into effect from November this year.
The WPI saga (No. of items in the index)
2004-05 1993-94 1981-82 1970-71
All commodities 1224 435 447 360
Primary articles 105 98 93 80
Fuel group 19 19 20 10
Mftd items 1100 318 334 270
The panel has also decided to increase the weight of manufactured
items and the fuel group in the new index. Accordingly, the new WPI
series, with a revised base year of 2004-05, will see the weight of
manufactured items go up to around 65 per cent from 63.75 per cent in
the present series. The fuel group weight will increase to around 15
per cent, from 14.23 per cent.
The weight of primary articles will decrease from 22.02 per cent to
around 20 per cent, reflecting changing production and consumption
patterns in the economy.
To this end, prices of wheat and rice in the public distribution
system will be dropped from the new series as they are administered
rates and not representative of wholesale prices.
In all, price quotations from all commodities are being increased to
around 6,000 from 1,918.
In a move aimed at collecting more timely and accurate information,
the data collection system is being ramped up. The Department of
Industrial Policy and Promotion has also decided to rope in the
National Informatics Centre, the government's information technology
arm, to help in data collection.
Each unit, from which the data have to come, will be given a login ID
and password to feed the relevant price data directly on to a
portal.
Meanwhile, the Sen committee has submitted an interim report on the
WPI revision to the ministry of commerce and industry last week. It is
likely to seek more time -- perhaps six months -- to submit the final
report.
The committee was set up five years ago and was originally expected to
submit its report by March 31 this year.
PowerYourTrade Trading Calls
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Wednesday, May 28, 2008
PowerYourTrade Trading Calls
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