5 May, 2008, 1120 hrs IST
The Nifty cash index has seen a steady upward trend since the April 7, 2008 low of 4,628. In 16 trading sessions that followed, index has gained by 670 points. Nifty cash closed the week at 5,228. The index gained by a close to 117 points over the close of the previous week. The rally has not been a spectacular, as it has been rather sluggish, and the overall volumes have been low.
Most of the major international markets like the US, the UK, Japan and Hong Kong have seen a rally towards their February highs and are currently hovering near these levels. The Indian market is below its February highs, and assuming parity with other international markets, we should be seeing more upsides in Indian markets.
Now, let's discuss the overall market structure. Since the beginning of February 2008, we are trading in a very large-trading band or a range of 4,460-5,550. Just marginally below the upper resistance band of 5,550-5,600, we have a minor resistance at 5,360-5,400. The structure of the swings, within the trading range, is apparently corrective. The structure is taking shape of a 3-3-5 flat; a corrective pattern as Elliott wave technicians would interpret it to be. If the interpretation of the structure is to be regarded as true, the rally from the March 18 low of 4,468 needs to break down in to a 5-wave pattern. As of now, this is what seems to be happening.
The rally from the low at 4,468 is still in progress, and it is likely that we will see the index rallying towards 5,600. We are likely to see the market rallying from here towards the first resistance at 5,360-5,400 and then correct down towards 5,050-5,010 levels. Once the corrective phase is over, we can see the market rallying to 5,550-5,600 over a period of the next 3-4 weeks. This will complete the 5-wave sequence, and thus, the entire larger degree 3-3-5 pattern will get over.
To put it more simply, the current rally is likely to sustain till around 5,360-5,400 when the first resistance is likely to take place. This correction will bring down the index towards 5,010-5,040 and then a final blow-off towards 5,600. This is the projected map of the market over next 2-4 weeks from here.
For practical trading purposes, the traders should buy in stocks of specific sectors since not all sectors are performing optimally. There are some laggards and some sectors will outperform the market in the next 2-4 weeks. Buying into corrections of stocks that are currently in an uptrend should be a preferred strategy. And when the time is appropriate, there will be some good opportunities to short stocks that are in a confirmed downtrend.
Adopting a very broad view, lately stocks in the auto sector provide a very good trading opportunity on the long side. Hero Honda, Maruti, Tata Motors seem to offer a good scope for a rally of 15% or more as all of them are moving up after a prolonged phase of consolidation. Furthermore, frontline construction and infrastructure companies like DLF, Unitech, GMR Infra and Lanco Infra, among others, also seem to offer a good scope for appreciation from current levels.
Most of the major international markets like the US, the UK, Japan and Hong Kong have seen a rally towards their February highs and are currently hovering near these levels. The Indian market is below its February highs, and assuming parity with other international markets, we should be seeing more upsides in Indian markets.
Now, let's discuss the overall market structure. Since the beginning of February 2008, we are trading in a very large-trading band or a range of 4,460-5,550. Just marginally below the upper resistance band of 5,550-5,600, we have a minor resistance at 5,360-5,400. The structure of the swings, within the trading range, is apparently corrective. The structure is taking shape of a 3-3-5 flat; a corrective pattern as Elliott wave technicians would interpret it to be. If the interpretation of the structure is to be regarded as true, the rally from the March 18 low of 4,468 needs to break down in to a 5-wave pattern. As of now, this is what seems to be happening.
The rally from the low at 4,468 is still in progress, and it is likely that we will see the index rallying towards 5,600. We are likely to see the market rallying from here towards the first resistance at 5,360-5,400 and then correct down towards 5,050-5,010 levels. Once the corrective phase is over, we can see the market rallying to 5,550-5,600 over a period of the next 3-4 weeks. This will complete the 5-wave sequence, and thus, the entire larger degree 3-3-5 pattern will get over.
To put it more simply, the current rally is likely to sustain till around 5,360-5,400 when the first resistance is likely to take place. This correction will bring down the index towards 5,010-5,040 and then a final blow-off towards 5,600. This is the projected map of the market over next 2-4 weeks from here.
For practical trading purposes, the traders should buy in stocks of specific sectors since not all sectors are performing optimally. There are some laggards and some sectors will outperform the market in the next 2-4 weeks. Buying into corrections of stocks that are currently in an uptrend should be a preferred strategy. And when the time is appropriate, there will be some good opportunities to short stocks that are in a confirmed downtrend.
Adopting a very broad view, lately stocks in the auto sector provide a very good trading opportunity on the long side. Hero Honda, Maruti, Tata Motors seem to offer a good scope for a rally of 15% or more as all of them are moving up after a prolonged phase of consolidation. Furthermore, frontline construction and infrastructure companies like DLF, Unitech, GMR Infra and Lanco Infra, among others, also seem to offer a good scope for appreciation from current levels.
On the flip side, sectors that seem to have a full run are stocks in software and cement sectors. Stocks like Grasim, ACC and Gujarat Ambuja have not performed and these stocks are likely to see deterioration in values once the market turns lower as per our expectations. There is always an opportunity for everyone in this sort of a market situation provided one makes the right choice of stocks. It has not been the easiest of market conditions to trade for the past couple of months, as the volatility has died down. Secondly, the advances ratio has averages around 55-66% for last several weeks and so only some selected stocks are going up.
But just as a thought, volatility is very important to consider for a trader, as volatility determines where stop losses are to be placed and position sizing depends on the size of the stop loss. Manage your risk, and though there may be occasional losing trades, but over the number of trades, the outcome will be positive. Good Luck and Happy Trading.
But just as a thought, volatility is very important to consider for a trader, as volatility determines where stop losses are to be placed and position sizing depends on the size of the stop loss. Manage your risk, and though there may be occasional losing trades, but over the number of trades, the outcome will be positive. Good Luck and Happy Trading.
Source: ET
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