But, on a bumpy road now, they hardly have a choice. As predicted in
these columns some weeks ago, RBI hiked CRR by 50 basis points, long
after trading hours on Thursday but before the long-weekend. It indeed
raised the CRR, long before the policy announcement date of April 29.
Will the central bank tinker with official interest rate or touch the
repo window on April 29 again? Some market experts would like to
believe that RBI might not shock the markets further. But realists
felt that a clearer official signal to raise interest rates would not
make much of a difference to the markets. Already a softening of
demand for credit was visible. Further hardening of rates may only
have a marginal impact in the short-term. In any case, a selective
rate hike by some banks is on the cards.
On the whole, the equity market is unlikely to react very negatively
this week to Thursday's RBI move. Psychologically, market has prepared
itself for a tad higher interest rates in the short-to-medium-term.
A scenario marked by tighter money supply to the corporations and
markets has largely been factored in for the next six months-to-a-
year. Only bigger-than-apprehended losses or negative news may change
the sentiment for the worse.
So far good show
The first set of results has so far been more or less on expected
lines. However, market has not turned bullish yet in the medium-term
perspective. A kind of circumspection has prompted some players to
say: "the glass is half full" instead of saying it is still half
empty.
This difference matters in shaping a short-term sentiment. Sections of
the retail and trading communities are showing signs of a comeback.
Some of the big brokerages, which are learnt to have suffered losses,
are back in the game, albeit at a moderate level. Hurt HNIs are taking
a fresh guard too.
Prominent Wall Street bankers, present on Dalal Street, seemed to
have, however, literally stopped trading on proprietary accounts.
Their clients, including certain hedge funds, who did not have to face
their shareholders the way a regulated investment outfits do, have
largely reduced their local exposures or remained on the sidelines.
Some overseas funds, which had planned a presence here, have postponed
arrival in the recent months.
New shops
Curiously, however, in the midst of the panic followed by uncertainty
in the global and local markets and an apparent resistance to overseas
funds flow in the last three months coupled with redemption pressure,
some new funds have, of late, set up shops here. According to market
intelligence, they have not started their investment activity as yet,
but have been making investments in people and infrastructure.
Meet people who discuss and share your passions. Join them now.
No comments:
Post a Comment